Weak Dollar vs. Strong Dollar, which one is better?
Ringgit menguat setiap hari,tp rupiah malah terjun bebas.. US dollar mengurus dari hari ke hari dan singpore $ maintain stabil. Dua mata uang yang sangat menggoda iman : EURO and POUNDSTERLING.
Sebenernya baik ga sih, kalo invest USD saat nilainya anjlok? Saya cuman takut rugi.. takut ga balik modal.. takut ini, takut itu..
Tapi ternyata, ada jawabannya! Dari salah satu web, berikut analisanya:
Since the dollar has tumbled against most world currencies. That is, if you held, say, the British pound early in 2006 and you still hold it, you can get more dollars for each pound now than you could then. For instance, on Dec. 1, 2005, you could get $1.72483 dollars for each pound; today that same pound buys $2.01816 dollars. In barely two years, that’s a 17% reduction in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar vs. the pound. Similarly, on 12/01/05, you could buy 1 U.S. dollar for 0.84617 Euros; today, that same dollar costs 0.69442 Euros. That means that the U.S. dollar has DEpreciated about 18% against the Euro. Both of these changes in exchange rates are examples of a WEAKER dollar. The simple definition of a weak dollar is that it won’t buy as much in countries with strong currencies now as it did at some point in the recent past.
1. In general, with a weakening dollar, we can expect increased foreign investment in dollar-denominated U.S. assets. That is because most foreign currencies can buy more U.S. assets today than they could last month or last year.
2. Foreign direct investment (FDI) MIGHT be strong with a strong dollar, but more often it is not. It’s not for the same reason that, with a weak dollar, FDI is likely to be strong: overseas currencies are apt to be able to buy fewer U.S. assets (due to exchange rates favoring the dollar) than they could when the dollar was not so strong. The Fed can make FDI more attractive, even with a strong dollar, by raising U.S. interest rates relative to rates in other countries. That attracts Eurodollars. Eurodollars, recall, were part of the M3 measure that the Fed quit publishing two years ago. Interest rates have fallen since then, and M3 is no longer reported. My, my.
3. The dollar becomes weak or strong for a couple of reasons. One is whether the international investment community, especially central bankers (Fed equivalents in other nations), has confidence in the U.S. economy and in the strength of the dollar. Another is whether the “risk-free rate” (the rate at which, in this case, a short-term U.S. treasury security earns interest ) is higher than risk-free rates in other countries.
Kalo gitu, jangan beli dollar ah.. Euro / pounds sounds better!